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With a growing expectation that the Toronto Blue Jays will reach post-season next year with the extra wild-card slot, time for predicting the unpredictable... THE STARTERS: Let's start off with the Blue Jays starting rotation. LHP Ricky Romero truly had a great opportunity to prove himself to stay number one in Toronto last year, and did a heck of a job considering he was now in a position that one of today's top pitchers, RHP Roy Halladay, once held. Romero throws both his 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs in the low to mid-90's, a curveball that sits in the mid to high-70's, a decent changeup that can vary from low to high-80's, and a slider that averages around the mid-80's. He continues to improve his game throughout his career, mainly focusing on control issues as he has walked an average of 80 batters per year in his short three years in the big leagues (have to walk a few to go deep, which he does a lot). In all, Romero ended the year with a 15-11 record, 2.99 ERA, 178 strikeouts, and 80 walks over 225 innings of work. He's also managed to land in the top 10 for AL's Cy Young Award, finishing behind LHP Gio Gonzalez (who signed with the Nats recently). So with an improving career, and the thought of an improving top-3, I think he can finally make the push and show how truly great he could be, in 2012 and for a good number of years to come. Next up, LHP Brandon Morrow retains his spot at number 2, with a devastating hit' em up or shut em' down result from last year. Looking at his numbers, one could be easily fooled into thinking that Morrow doesn't quite have the stuff of an elite pitcher. The lefty from Cali (not SoCal!) finished the latest season with a 11-11 record in 30 starts. His ERA was a tad high at 4.72 over 179 innings, but he still managed to fan 203 of the 777 batters he faced. The biggest problem I can figure is his stamina late in games because he's has the talent to be a superstar, but lacks the ability to go deep into games (the guy has diabetes too.) His fastball, which he commands fairly well averages in the high-90's and has been clocked at 100 mph on occasion. He also works a variety of breaking pitches (which he says he struggles with the most for consistency,a huge problem for him) such as a slider, change-up, and a nasty curveball. I think he'll see a steady rise of strikeouts, given that the American League doesn't clue into his tendencies to throw low and away (in an attempt to get hitters to chase), plus he fixed that nasty problem of not mixing it up enough. Point of the matter is that the Blue Jays can expect to see a slight rise in his usual numbers (strikeouts,walks,innings), but if the bullpen behind him doesn't perform he might be in a world of trouble. Better option would be for him to harness his raw talent finally, not likely now. Given that the Blue Jays still have faith in letting LHP Brett Cecil into the starting rotation next season, you better believe he's got a few issues to address. The biggest concern would be his mechanics, which have suffered from consistency throughout the 2011 season. His fastball seen a slight drop in velocity last season going from low 90's on average to 88-89 mph. Cecil has also been having troubles keeping his composure when attempting to control an arsenal of pitches. Of course everyone's talking about the weight issue, weighing 235 lb at 6'1 is not ideal for a fit MLB pitcher, but can be overcome. With a 4-11 record, 4.37 ERA, 87 K's and 48 BB's, all over 123 innings you can bet he'll be back with a return to self or better season. One would think if he were to slump early, the Blue Jays would option someone from Triple-A up to the majors in search of a replacement starter (or maybe this could be McGowan's chance) till he does, or doesn't return to form. It really could go either way, so watch out for Cecil and his part in the Blue Jays rotation. The giant upcoming sophomore season of RHP Henderson Alvarez could not look brighter. While posting a 1-3 record with a 3.53 ERA, Alvarez has become a huge piece in the future of the Blue Jays pitching rotation. Manager John Farrell has nothing but good things to say about this guy, whether it's improving his game through mechanics, or mentally adjusting to the major hitters. Remember that this guy pretty much jumped from Double-A to the MLB within months. Alvarez's fastball has averaged around the high-90's, his plus change-up has some nice break to it, but the slider is still in the works. This summer should bring about some positive changes to his routine as he'll probably be staying in the big-league's so long as he continues to improve. So look-out for this 21-year old righty-throwin' Venezuelan, as I suspect good things in 2012 while still realizing he's a fresh face to the league. How RHP Dustin McGowan can still throw at a high level is beyond me. After the three year injury plagued funk he suffered, McGowan bounced back last season and managed to hang around in Toronto as a starter. Since most teams don't have the flex of the Blue Jays 5th and final spot this will be hard for him to hang on to if he manages to slip into a bad groove. He finished 0-2 in 4 starts, working 21 innings. He managed 20 strikeouts and 13 walks, but his ERA was an unimpressive 6.43. This guy really needs to settle into a spot and pitch a few games before he'll feel confident, but he'll always be looking to move up should someone else in the rotation become injured or suffer a bad stretch. Realistically though, McGowan will probably see a little over a 100 innings and could possibly be slipped into a newly strengthened bullpen. Honorable mention goes to RHP Kyle Drabek who got the call-up last year toward the end of the season and ended the season with a 4-5 record. THE BULLPEN: If we're going to talk about weaknesses in the Blue Jay organization, the bullpen is #1. So far the off-season, and GM Alex Anthopoulos, have been kind to the second half of Toronto's pitching staff. This half, which makes an AL team a great one (LAA, DET, NYY, TEX, etc) has taken a huge leap with the trade involving the departing RHP Nestor Molina to the White Sox, and the addition of All-Star closer RHP Sergio Santos. This could not be better news for Blue Jays fans, as they have severely needed a secure and reliable closer for years, now they have one. Coming off a red-hot season for the struggling White Sox, Santos finished with 30 saves, a 4-5 record, 92 strikeouts against 29 walks, and an ERA of 3.55 with a BAA of .181 over 63 innings. His main arsenal is his high-90's fastball and a nasty slider, but he's known to thrown in the odd change-up and curve when necessary. With Santos in the closer spot the 9th inning is now sound in Toronto, the rest should fall into place nicely. RHP Casey Janssen had a great year in 2011 working the pen for the Blue Jays, working a 6-0 record over 55 game appearances. His ability to get hitters to pop-up and hit into Toronto defense resulted in an ERA of 2.26 showing complete control over his opponents. He has a very valuable job if he should land in the set-up spot, but he's still a long reliever threat. Look for Janssen to hold the group together and show the new guys the ropes in Toronto. Bold The Blue Jays still have a few familiar faces other than Casey to mention in RHP Carlos Villanueva, and RHP Jesse Litsch who will both see plenty of opportunities to stick their noses in and make an impact. Both have also flirted with the starting rotation so who knows with McGowan still easing back into the MLB and Cecil being on thin-ice. Look to these guys for there usual numbers, maybe with Janssen seeing a slip in his ERA considering the changes happening around Toronto. A couple of young guns have arrived in Toronto also(I'll get into other young pitchers in a prospect blog), RHP Joel Carreno and LHP Luis Perez. Both pitchers have shown promise in their own right but lack of MLB experience will have an effect on 2012 for them. The off-season should be kind to both as they will settle into their new team and find a home in the pen. Perez is good for a high ground-ball rate and Carreno for some nasty pitch combinations, but both lack the control over their game to make a huge impact in the ranks. Recent additions RHP Francisco Cordero and LHP Darren Oliver add the depth that this bullpen needed, and round out a great pitching staff to contend with teams like Boston, New York, Detroit, and the Rays. |
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